In the world of general aviation (GA)—a sector encompassing private jets, corporate fleets, and government aircraft—the prevailing calm may be misleading. For now, insurers continue to renew policies at steady or discounted rates. But with losses mounting and whispers of change growing louder, the industry may be approaching a turning point.
For years, GA has benefited from a saturated market brimming with capacity. Premiums have been low, underwriting terms generous, and high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) operating aircraft through management companies have been able to secure fleet policies at attractive rates. The appetite for business jet coverage has only grown, especially compared to the leaner market of five years ago.
Yet the winds may be shifting. Two high-profile airline losses—American Airlines (Flight 5342) and Delta (Flight 4819) —have together cost the industry nearly $1.5 billion in reserve estimates. That figure is staggering, given that the total premium pool for GA globally is estimated at just $1.6 billion. Swiss Re’s recent decision to withdraw from a class within the aviation space has only deepened the unease. If other carriers follow, the market’s buoyancy could quickly deflate.
Still, underwriters are—perhaps oddly—holding their nerve. In the first quarter of 2025, some airlines have begun to see premiums rise. But most general aviation renewals remain static or slightly discounted. Brokers report 3–4% reductions across the board, even in the face of mounting loss experience. Some underwriters appear to be clinging to market share while hoping others will blink first.
But if 2025 is indeed, as one insider put it, “the year of loss,” those discounts will be short-lived. There is already chatter about a return to underwriting discipline. Ancillary covers—like temporary substitute aircraft or concierge-style services for UHNW clients—are being quietly stripped out of some renewals. The focus is returning to core coverages: hull and liability, the bread and butter of aviation insurance.
Market dynamics are changing too. Consolidation among commercial airlines could remove large blocks of risk from the market, reducing overall premium volume. There is also talk of capital being reallocated to more profitable lines, such as marine or property insurance. Should that materialise, the sudden withdrawal of aviation capacity would force a market correction that could be as swift as it is severe.
For now, the GA market remains defined by paradox. A growing consensus suggests rates must rise, but competition keeps them flat. Capacity is both a blessing and a burden—allowing flexibility for clients while stalling much-needed recalibration. The fundamentals point to hardening conditions, yet pricing behavior lags behind.
In aviation, calm weather is often the prelude to turbulence. The same may be true for its insurance market. As the market teeters between surplus and correction, now is the time to review your programme, understand your exposures, and prepare for shifts in capacity and pricing.
Panthera specialises in navigating complex aviation risks with discretion and insight. To explore tailored coverage or to review your existing arrangements, get in touch with our team.
